Food Prices Surge as Inflation Pressures Bite Households
Uganda is grappling with a renewed wave of inflation, fueled heavily by rising food prices, unpredictable weather, and disruptions in supply chains. Though overall annual inflation remains moderate, the cost of essential food items has placed significant strain on households, especially in urban areas where dependency on markets is higher.
Key Findings
According to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), headline inflation stood at around 3.4% in March 2025, down slightly from earlier months.
However, food inflation has been rising sharply. Key items such as tomatoes, fresh leaf vegetables, green peppers, and fresh fish have recorded high month‑to‑month price increases.
Fresh produce is especially affected. For example, tomato prices rose from ~4.7% inflation in January to ~12.4% in February; fresh leaf vegetables similarly climbed.
Harsh weather (droughts, irregular rainfall) is cited by farmers and UBOS as among the prime causes of decreased yields, which in turn reduce supply and push prices up.
Some relief in inflation is coming from lower transport, lodging, and utility‐related inflation in certain months. But for many households, food remains the biggest cost burden.
Impacts & Concerns
Urban dwellers are particularly hit, since many depend on purchased produce. Poorer families may need to cut consumption, shift diets, or buy lower quality produce.
Seasonal fluctuations imply volatile market prices; without interventions, this could deepen vulnerability for rural producers (who face both input cost rises and unpredictable yields) and poor consumers.
Policy implications: need for improved weather forecasting, support for agricultural resilience, stabilizing supply by investing in storage, transportation, possibly subsidies or price supports for key staples. Also, inflation monitoring to ensure it doesn’t erode purchasing power drastically.
What’s Next
Government agencies (Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Trade) are expected to engage with farmer cooperatives and traders to try to smooth supply disruptions.
Possible interventions include import of certain food items to cushion shortages, support to smallholder farmers via agro‑inputs, improved irrigation schemes.
Monitoring needed in the coming months as we approach the next planting season and rainy period, to see if yields and supply rebound or whether further inflation spikes occur.
