Climate Alert: “Day Zero” Droughts Threaten Southern Africa by 2030

Pretoria / Johannesburg
A new global climate study warns that nearly three-quarters of drought-prone regions — including parts of southern Africa — could face extreme water shortages known as “day zero” droughts (when water demand exceeds supply) by the end of the century, with some regions possibly hitting crisis levels as early as 2030.

What’s going on

The research uses advanced climate modelling to project how combined pressures from climate change, rising human water use, and altered rainfall patterns are pushing many regions towards tipping-points in water security. The study highlights southern Africa among the higher-risk zones.
In the African context, this is compounded by existing stresses — droughts, declining river/lake levels, and older water infrastructure. Earlier UN/WMO reporting found Africa already facing intense climate impacts: floods, droughts, crop losses, displacement.

Why it matters for Uganda & East Africa

While the immediate study focuses on southern Africa, the mechanisms it flags (rising demand, stressed water systems, changing rainfall) apply to Uganda’s region too — especially as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns of wetter-then-drier rainfall outlooks for the Greater Horn.

Uganda’s agriculture, hydropower, and urban water supplies may face disruptions if trends continue. Early preparation is critical.

For policy-makers, the “day zero” framing means urgent attention must shift from just responding to droughts to anticipating water-system breakdowns.

What to watch

Government and water-agency responses: infrastructure investments, demand-management, early-warning systems.

Whether regional bodies (EAC, IGAD) embed “day-zero” risk in plans.

How this narrative influences development funding — will donors to Africa’s water/irrigation sectors use this framing to accelerate support?