Aid Cuts Could Cause 22.6 Million Extra Deaths, Study Warns

A study by ISGlobal (Barcelona Institute for Global Health) and partners projects that continued cuts in development aid from the US, UK, Germany, and France could lead to 22.6 million additional deaths by 2030, including 5.4 million children under five.

The researchers looked at both “severe” and “mild” aid-cut scenarios. Even the mild one could result in 9.4 million preventable deaths.

Several European countries have already announced deep cuts — some up to 40%.

The study warns that these cuts could reverse decades of gains in health, education, and poverty reduction.

Why it matters:

This is a global humanitarian alarm: the scale of possible loss of life is staggering, particularly in low- and middle-income countries that rely heavily on foreign aid.

For countries like Uganda, major donor cuts could cripple critical health programs — child mortality, maternal health, disease prevention — threatening to erode development progress.

The study highlights how deeply interconnected global health is; donor decisions in the West can directly cost millions of lives elsewhere.

What to watch:

How donor countries respond: Will there be pushback or adjustments in their aid budgets due to these findings?

Whether affected countries will mobilize alternative funding (regional, private, domestic) to fill the gap.

The reaction of international institutions (e.g., WHO, UNICEF) — and whether they’ll campaign for renewed aid or new financing mechanisms.

Public health policy shifts: as funding drops, there may be changes in prioritization (which programs to cut or preserve).