Regional Power Shifts: How Uganda’s Political Landscape is Changing in Western & North-Eastern Regions
KAMPALA ,UGANDA. As the 2026 general elections approach in Uganda, several regions long considered safe strongholds for the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) are showing signs of political change. From the west in the Tooro sub‑region to the northeast in Karamoja, shifting loyalties, emerging opposition activity and local grievances are reshaping how power is contested.
Tooro Sub-region: Quiet but Significant Undercurrent
The Tooro sub-region – covering districts such as Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kamwenge, Bunyangabu, Kyegegwa and the city of Fort Portal – has historically backed the NRM, rooted in the party’s liberation narrative and promise of stability.
However, local analysts and residents are now pointing to a growing disconnect between political loyalty and developmental outcomes. Communities say poor infrastructure, under-resourced schools and limited economic opportunity have eroded the automatic support for the NRM.
In response, the opposition National Unity Platform (NUP) and other parties are ramping up outreach in the region — especially among youth who feel overlooked. Tooro may not turn red yet, but political ground is shifting.
Karamoja: From “No-Go Zone” to Political Opening
The Karamoja region, long considered an impenetrable bastion of NRM dominance, is witnessing fresh opposition activity. In places such as Moroto town, the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) opened regional offices, former NRM youth leaders have defected to the opposition, and local frustrations over primary elections and perceived favouritism have surfaced.
Despite the strong institutional presence of the NRM, these shifts indicate that the party’s grip is loosened. Voters in Karamoja cite neglect, lack of development and internal party discord as drivers of change. For the opposition, making inroads here is strategically valuable given the region’s historical insulation.
NRM’s Strategic Response
The NRM is not standing still. In western and other regions, the party is reinforcing grassroots presence, holding routine constituency-level consultations and seeking to translate its development agenda into visible local impact. For example, the party secretariat announced a shift from election-only mobilisation to continuous community engagement.
In addition, targeted strategies are being deployed in regions such as Greater Masaka (another contested area) involving economic programmes, youth and women initiatives, and service-delivery upgrades to shore up support.
Implications & What to Monitor
Regional swing potential: If the opposition consolidates presence in regions like Tooro or Karamoja, it could undermine some NRM majorities and force electoral recalculation.
Development promise vs dissatisfaction: Regions that supported the NRM but feel unserved are now politically vulnerable — serving as warning signs for the ruling party.
Youth & defectors’ role: Former youth leaders or insiders shifting allegiances can accelerate regional change and help build credible local opposition networks.
Local vs national dynamics: Regional shifts may not immediately translate into national change, but they reshape the terrain — governing parties may face more negotiation, coalition-building and localised political contests.
Election strategy adaptation: Both NRM and opposition will increasingly invest in region-specific strategies rather than blanket national messaging.
What to Watch Ahead
By-election results in Tooro, Karamoja and other contested districts — any major upsets will signal deeper change.
How the NRM’s grassroots and mobilisation reform holds up in practice (are they simply consultative or do they translate into service improvements?).
The ability of opposition parties to sustain presence, resources and organisation in previously neglected regions.
The interplay of development programmes and political loyalty — whether new or enhanced government-initiated programmes in these regions result in tangible votes.
The regional narratives used during campaigns: will “change” become a dominant theme in Tooro and Karamoja, and how will the NRM respond?
