After the Election: What’s Next in Cameroon?

Younde/Kampala Presidential election in Cameroon has entered a critical phase — with the country now grappling with political uncertainty, public anger and a volatile security environment following the official declaration of victory for President Paul Biya. The reaction from the streets, opposition and civil-society groups suggests that the immediate aftermath may be more turbulent than the poll itself.

Key Developments

Biya, aged 92, was officially declared winner with 53.66% of the vote by the country’s Constitutional Council, while his main challenger, Issa Tchiroma Bakary, formally placed second with approximately 35.19%.

The opposition rejects the result outright, alleging large-scale fraud, inflated turnout in conflict-affected regions and manipulation of data.

Widespread protests have broken out across major cities — notably in Douala, Yaoundé and Garoua — with reports of at least four civilians killed, dozens injured and hundreds of arrests.

The authorities have responded with heavy security deployments, curfews in some districts, and restrictions on public gatherings.

Internet and communication disruptions have been reported, which critics say were used to hinder independent reporting and organisation of protests.

What’s Driving the Friction?

1. Legitimacy gap: Many Cameroonians — especially youth under 35 who make up the bulk of the population — view Biya’s continued rule as out of sync with their aspirations. The opposition claims the official result doesn’t reflect what citizens believe they voted for.
2. Security & regional conflict context: The Anglophone separatist conflict in the north-west and south-west, and insurgency in the Far North, mean that some regions had low credible turnout and extraordinary security measures — raising questions about the validity of results reported from those areas.
3. Information environment and disinformation: Fake result tallies, deep-fakes and manipulated social-media posts circulated widely, fuelling confusion and anger.
4. Economic and social frustrations: Many citizens say the country’s abundant natural resources haven’t translated into improved living standards. The election has become a vehicle for broader discontent.

Short-Term Risks & Scenarios

Risk of escalation: With protests ongoing and security forces already engaged, there is a real danger of more fatalities, civil-unrest spillover, and perhaps even shutdowns of critical infrastructure.

Stability vs stagnation: The victory gives Biya legal hold on power, but his mandate may be viewed as shaky — which could reduce governance effectiveness and increase the risk of instability.

Opposition strategy: Tchiroma’s camp might continue demonstrations, pursue legal challenges and seek international support, prolonging the political impasse.

International view & aid implications: Donors, investors and international bodies may adopt a cautious stance — uncertainty may affect foreign investment, aid flows and development programmes.

Medium-Term Outlook

Dialogue & mediation: For stability, many analysts believe a national dialogue is now imperative — one that addresses grievances around governance, transparency and regional inclusion.

Security reforms & regional crises: Unless the separatist and insurgency challenges are addressed alongside political reform, Cameroon remains vulnerable to further destabilisation.

Youth and governance renewal: The country’s future may well hinge on how the government responds to demands from the younger population — both through policy and representation.

Institutional credibility: The electoral process, media freedom and independent oversight will likely come under heightened scrutiny, internally and externally.

What to Watch

Whether the opposition files legal cases and how the Constitutional Council or courts respond.

Reports of further casualties, detentions or curfews in urban centres and conflict zones.

Moves by regional bodies (like the African Union or the Economic Community of Central African States) to mediate or issue statements.

Indicators of investor confidence: capital flows, business sentiment, and foreign aid announcements.

Changes in internet connectivity, media access, and civil-society monitoring.