AGOA Expiry Sends Shockwaves Through Africa’s Export Markets

October 4, 2025 Aron Mwesigwa

KAMPALA — African exporters are bracing for major financial losses after the expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a U.S. trade program that for 24 years allowed many countries on the continent to export goods duty-free to American markets.

The legislation officially lapsed at midnight on September 30, after U.S. lawmakers failed to renew or extend it. Despite last-minute appeals from both African leaders and sections of the Biden administration, Congress adjourned without voting on a renewal bill.

Thousands of Jobs at Risk

The end of AGOA threatens tens of thousands of jobs across textile, apparel, and agricultural sectors in Africa.
Factories in Kenya, Lesotho, Eswatini, Ethiopia, and Ghana that depend heavily on U.S. orders are already cutting back on production or halting shipments while they await clarity.

Ugandan exporters—particularly in coffee, leather goods, and niche textiles—fear secondary effects. Uganda did not rely heavily on AGOA, but regional trade linkages mean disruptions in Kenyan ports or transport corridors could still impact prices and demand.

“Our clients in the U.S. are already asking about new tariffs. Some shipments are on hold,” said Jane K., export manager at a Kampala-based apparel firm. “If this delay continues for months, we’ll have to reduce output.”

East African Governments Scramble for Alternatives

Officials in Nairobi, Addis Ababa, and Kampala have begun exploring new market options through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and bilateral arrangements with Asian markets.

Kenya’s Trade Ministry said it would lobby Washington for a transitional arrangement or country-specific trade deal. Uganda’s Trade and Industry officials have indicated they are “monitoring the developments closely” and seeking to “diversify destination markets.”

Economic analysts warn that without AGOA, African exports to the U.S. could drop by up to 40% in 2025–2026, depending on product categories.

Political Fallout in Washington

AGOA’s expiration comes amid increasing political division in the U.S. Congress and uncertainty over global trade policy under the Trump administration’s renewed “America First” approach.
A White House statement released Friday expressed “regret” over the lapse and promised “renewed engagement with African partners” but gave no timeline for reinstatement.

What It Means for Uganda and the Region

Textile exports: Smaller suppliers in Uganda may lose subcontract work from Kenyan factories that export to the U.S.

Trade logistics: Reduced container traffic through Mombasa could raise shipping costs.

Investment confidence: Foreign investors may hesitate to expand production lines geared toward AGOA markets.

Opportunity: A chance for East Africa to deepen intra-African value chains and explore EU, Asian, and Gulf markets.